Model Uncertainty
Model uncertainty refers to the lack of knowledge or confidence in the accuracy of a statistical or machine learning model's predictions. It arises due to various factors such as limited data, noise in the data, model complexity, and assumptions made during model selection. Model uncertainty can be quantified using techniques such as Bayesian inference, ensemble methods, and Monte Carlo simulations. Bayesian inference involves updating the prior probability distribution of model parameters based on observed data to obtain a posterior distribution. Ensemble methods combine multiple models to reduce the variance and improve the accuracy of predictions. Monte Carlo simulations involve generating random samples from the model's parameter space to estimate the uncertainty in the model's predictions. Model uncertainty is an important consideration in decision-making processes that rely on model predictions, such as risk assessment, financial forecasting, and medical diagnosis.
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